What does an assumption map reveal?
Method: An assumption map separates low-risk background beliefs from uncertain claims that could overturn the plan. The highest combined importance and uncertainty deserves the earliest test.
Separate consequence from uncertainty
- State the proposed decision or plan.
- Write each assumption as a claim that could be false.
- Rate consequence and uncertainty separately.
- Design the smallest test for the highest-ranked assumption.
Choose a test before committing resources
A new service may assume customers understand the offer, the team can deliver it, and the price covers support. Customer comprehension may be both highly important and highly uncertain, making a prototype test more useful than another planning meeting.
Ratings organize judgment rather than replace evidence
Phrase assumptions so they can fail
An assumption such as customers will like it is too broad to test. Replace it with an observable claim such as at least eight of ten target users can explain the offer after one page. A precise claim makes uncertainty discussable and suggests a proportionate test.
Review the map when evidence arrives. Lower the uncertainty rating when a reliable observation narrows the range, and revise importance when the plan changes or a fallback route becomes available.
Boundary of the result
A high score prioritizes investigation. It does not prove the assumption is false.
Continue with the method
Use the assumption mapping guide and the assumption reframing article and the competing hypotheses evidence matrix to move from a quick result to a complete reasoning process.